Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The Strategist
Campaign insider who understands electoral mechanics
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
↑+15% edgeJ.D. Vance's true probability of winning the 2028 GOP nomination is around 68%, higher than the market's 53.5% price, due to his dominant position as Trump's VP, leading polls, and key rival Marco Rubio publicly deferring to him. The market undervalues Vance relative to overpriced alternatives like ineligible Trump (4.3%) and others with minimal paths.
Key Points
- +Vance leads all early 2025 GOP primary polls by wide margins (e.g., 36% nationally), reflecting his status as MAGA heir apparent with strong working-class appeal from 'Hillbilly Elegy' and Trump VP pick.
- +Marco Rubio (market #2 at 8.6%) repeatedly states he won't challenge Vance and will endorse him, clearing the main establishment-MAGA bridge rival and consolidating Florida/Texas delegates early.
- +Historical VP-to-nominee success (Bush '88, Nixon '60) combined with Trump's likely endorsement and party machinery give Vance a structural edge in delegate math for Iowa/NH/SC delegate hauls needed for 1,215 majority.
Key Risks
- !VP taint if Trump admin faces major scandals/failures by 2026 midterms, eroding MAGA base turnout modeled at 85%+ of 2024 levels.
- !Emergence of Trump family challenger (e.g., Don Jr. at 1.9%) splitting MAGA vote if Trump signals neutrality.
- !Personal risks: Vance's past Trump criticism resurfacing or low early state ground game if focused on DC duties over IA/NH visits.
Catalysts
- →Explicit Trump endorsement post-2026 midterms sweeps, locking super PACs/donors like 2024 cycle.
- →Strong VP visibility via foreign/domestic wins (e.g., border security, economy) boosting favorables to 60%+ among GOP voters.
- →Early 2027 Iowa caucus straw polls win >40%, triggering donor rush and Rubio/Kemp endorsements.
At 53.5%, Vance offers value as clear frontrunner with 68% true odds; buy YES while shorting Rubio/Trump who lack credible paths—Rubio defers, Trump ineligible—creating relative edge in mutually exclusive market.
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
-4% edgeI estimate Marco Rubio's true probability of winning the 2028 Republican nomination at 5%, significantly lower than the market's 8.6%. Rubio has repeatedly and recently stated he will not run if J.D. Vance does and will support Vance as the nominee, positioning Vance as the clear frontrunner. This self-imposed deference, combined with Vance's dominant polling and heir-apparent status, makes Rubio's path extremely narrow.
Key Points
- +Rubio's explicit public and private statements ruling out a 2028 run if Vance enters (e.g., Dec 17, 2025 Vanity Fair interview and Fox appearances), effectively ceding the field.
- +Vance's overwhelming lead in polls (36%+ in recent surveys) and betting markets (53.5%), reflecting MAGA loyalty, VP incumbency advantage, and early positioning.
- +Historical VP-to-nominee success (e.g., Bush 1988) far outpaces SecState path (rare since 1840s); Rubio's Florida base helps but lacks national coalition to overcome Trump/Vance machine.
Key Risks
- !Vance unexpectedly bows out due to scandal, health issues, or Trump disfavor, opening the field.
- !Trump shifts endorsement to Rubio amid administration tensions or foreign policy successes elevating Rubio.
- !Midterm 2026 losses fracture GOP, creating room for establishment-MAGA hybrid like Rubio.
Catalysts
- →Major Vance scandal or VP performance failure eroding MAGA support.
- →Rubio leads high-profile diplomatic wins (e.g., China/Taiwan crisis) boosting national profile and Trump endorsement.
- →Vance-Trump rift emerges, with Trump favoring Rubio as experienced alternative.
At 8.6%, Rubio is overpriced relative to his self-sidelining and Vance's 53.5% dominance; market hasn't fully priced recent Rubio deference statements, implying value in NO while YES on Vance or hold others.
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
-4% edgeDonald Trump's true probability of winning the 2028 Republican nomination is effectively 0%, far below the market price of 4.3%, due to the 22nd Amendment barring him from a third term. No realistic path exists for nomination or acceptance, making this massively overpriced. Relative to frontrunners like JD Vance (53.5%), it's inconsistent with constitutional reality and party dynamics.
Key Points
- +22nd Amendment explicitly prohibits Trump from being elected president a third time, as he served two terms (2017-2021, 2025-2029).
- +No feasible timeline for constitutional amendment before 2028 primaries/convention; requires 2/3 Congress + 3/4 states ratification.
- +Trump himself and all research confirm ineligibility; no serious campaign infrastructure or endorsements for a run, unlike Vance/Rubio.
Key Risks
- !Fringe legal challenges or RNC rule changes attempting nomination despite ineligibility, though courts would invalidate.
- !Trump health crisis or resignation leading to wild 'draft' movement, but still constitutionally impossible.
- !Misinterpretation of 'non-consecutive' terms myth persisting in low-information betting.
Catalysts
- →Unforeseen Trump endorsement push or family proxy confusion boosting 'Trump' bets.
- →Major scandal discrediting all other candidates, prompting desperate convention floor fight (still fails legally).
At 4.3%, hugely overpriced vs. 0% true odds; buy NO implied by shorting YES. Inconsistent with Vance dominance (53.5%), Rubio deference, and efficient market elsewhere; pure value on NO given constitutional certainty.
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
-2% edgeRon DeSantis's 3.5% market price overstates his chances given his 2024 primary flameout, lack of current momentum, and dominance of VP JD Vance as the heir apparent in Trumpworld. My estimated true probability is 2%, making this slightly overpriced relative to frontrunners like Vance (53.5%) and even Trump (4.3%).
Key Points
- +DeSantis's 2024 campaign collapsed early after Iowa underperformance, damaging his 'national conservative' brand and exposing ground game weaknesses, with no evidence of rehabilitation by late 2025.
- +VP JD Vance leads all polls decisively (36-50%+), benefits from historical VP-to-nominee path (e.g., Bush '88), and has Trump loyalty; Rubio (SecState) explicitly defers to Vance.
- +DeSantis absent from recent candidate lists, early primary visits, or Trump endorsement speculation; Florida governorship ends 2026 without reelection boost, limiting visibility vs. administration insiders.
Key Risks
- !Trump withholds endorsement or family drama elevates chaos (e.g., Don Jr. at 1.9%), opening door for DeSantis comeback.
- !DeSantis leverages post-governorship freedom for aggressive early state GOTV/fundraising, recapturing donor coalitions alienated in 2024.
Catalysts
- →Vance administration scandal or poor midterm 2026 performance erodes his frontrunner status.
- →DeSantis secures high-profile Trump endorsement or key endorsements (e.g., donor networks, state chairs) amid field fragmentation.
At 3.5%, DeSantis is marginally overpriced vs. my 2% estimate and inefficient relative to Vance's underpriced dominance (53.5% vs. poll leads) or Trump's ineligible longshot (4.3%); small NO edge avoids multiple YES inconsistency in mutually exclusive market.
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
-2% edgeI estimate Tucker Carlson's true probability of winning the 2028 GOP nomination at 1.5%, below the market's 3.0% price. While he has strong name recognition among the MAGA base, he lacks any political experience, campaign infrastructure, or polling traction in a field led decisively by VP JD Vance. The market overprices his media celebrity relative to historical precedents and current dynamics.
Key Points
- +No mentions of Tucker in current candidate lists, polls, or early positioning; zero infrastructure or early state visits unlike Vance.
Key Risks
- !Lacks elected experience, fundraising network, and party machinery needed for delegate path.
Catalysts
- →Trump endorsement (unlikely given Vance favoritism).
- →Catastrophic failures by top candidates opening chaos.
3.0% overstates Tucker's viability vs. Vance (53.5%) and even experienced alternatives like Cruz/Youngkin; short for value in efficient market.
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
-2% edgeMarjorie Taylor Greene's true probability of winning the 2028 GOP nomination is approximately 0.5%, significantly lower than the market's 2.7% price. She lacks the executive experience, broad party support, fundraising prowess, and early momentum of frontrunners like Vance and Rubio, making her a classic fringe candidate with no viable path to 1,215 delegates. Her polarizing persona limits appeal beyond the hardline MAGA base, rendering the market overpricing her name recognition.
Key Points
- +No evidence of serious 2028 groundwork, polling, or endorsements in research; absent from frontrunner discussions dominated by Vance (53.5%) and Rubio (8.6%).
- +Historical precedent: House backbenchers like MTG have zero modern success in GOP nominations; last House member nominee was Garfield (1880). Limited to GA-14 district appeal, no statewide/executive wins.
- +Narrow voter coalition: Alienates GOP moderates, donors, and establishment despite MAGA loyalty; weak fundraising/GOTV compared to governors/senators; no path through early states (IA/NH/SC) without Trump intervention, unlikely given VP Vance preference.
Key Risks
- !Ongoing controversies/scandals could further erode even fringe support or prompt party to marginalize her.
- !Intra-MAGA competition from Trump Jr. (1.9%), Carlson (3.0%), Gaetz (0.5%) fragments her base without differentiation.
- !Trump's influence favors Vance/Rubio axis; any endorsement elsewhere sidelines her amid party consolidation post-2024 sweep.
Catalysts
- →Unexpected Trump endorsement if Vance/Rubio falter dramatically (e.g., major scandal).
- →MTG launches high-profile national campaign with surprise donor surge and early primary buzz, defying odds.
At 2.7%, MTG is overpriced relative to her ~0.5% true odds and negligible delegate path; capital better allocated to NO on her or undervalued alternatives, as market efficiency favors consolidated frontrunners in post-Trump GOP.
Research
2028 Republican primary schedule
Current 2028 GOP candidates
Republican 2028 nomination frontrunners
2028 RNC convention date
Recent Republican Party news
2028 US presidential election timeline
J.D. Vance Trump relationship VP endorsement
J.D. Vance Republican primary polls December 2025
J.D. Vance early primary states visits Iowa 2025
J.D. Vance vice presidential achievements 2025
Marco Rubio Secretary of State performance 2025
Marco Rubio 2028 GOP presidential run interest
Marco Rubio Trump administration foreign policy
Marco Rubio Florida GOP support 2028 nomination
Marco Rubio national polls Republican primary 2025
2028 Republican primary schedule dates
2028 RNC convention Houston rules delegates
Donald Trump 2028 Republican nominee preference
GOP nomination process rules 2028 replacement
2028 GOP presidential nomination polls latest
Republican 2028 frontrunners news December 2025
Trump VP to president historical precedents
Secretary of State presidential candidates history
2028 Republican National Committee leadership
Eric Trump 2028 Republican presidential interest
Republican Party divisions Trump second term 2025
2028 US election timeline primaries caucuses
Betting markets odds 2028 GOP nomination
Recent statements 2028 Republican candidates
Community
LiveLine moved 3 points since open. Sharp money on YES.
Just added 10k to my position. The research here is solid.
Historical patterns suggest 68% probability, market pricing at 54%
New catalyst incoming. Check the news feed.
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