Pistons vs. Hornets
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for February 9 at 7:00PM ET: If the Pistons win, the market will resolve to "Pistons". If the Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
The Stathead
Advanced analytics and sabermetrics expert
Pistons vs. Hornets
↑+11% edgePistons win probability estimated at 68%, higher than market's 57.5% due to their dominant season record and efficiency metrics. Hornets' 9-game streak is impressive but against weaker competition and likely to regress against top East team. Expect Pistons to leverage superior net rating (+7.8) and road performance (16-7).
Key Points
- +Pistons #1 in East (38-13, +7.8 net rating, 117.5 PPG / 109.7 OPP PPG), strong road (16-7, 69.6% win%), excel vs .500+ teams (20-6).
- +Hornets mediocre overall (25-28, 11-13 home), streak (9-1 L10) vs sub-.500 foes likely regresses; process (e.g., recent wins) over results favors Pistons.
- +Market inefficiencies: Spread -2.5/ -3.5 at ~50%, but Pistons' EPA/def efficiency suggests 65-70% win prob; minor injuries (Duren probable).
Key Risks
- !Hornets' momentum/hot streak at home (4-game home win streak, L10 9-1); LaMelo Ball/Miles Bridges/Brandon Miller peaking.
- !Pistons potential Duren absence (10.5 RPG, rebounding edge key); back-to-back/road fatigue (recent W1 after L1).
Catalysts
- →Cade Cunningham (25.1 PPG, 9.7 APG) exploits Hornets' perimeter D; Pistons force turnovers (strong steals/blocks).
- →Regression in Hornets' unsustainable streak efficiency; Pistons clamp 1H (1H ML 55.5% market aligns).
57.5% underprices Pistons' edge vs streaking but inferior Hornets; YES offers value over implied -135 odds, consistent with spread/total markets; avoid YES on Hornets implied 42.5% as overpriced.
Pistons vs. Hornets: 1H Moneyline
↑+6% edgePistons 1H ML is undervalued at 55.5%; true probability ~62% given Pistons' elite net rating (+7.8), strong road record (16-7), and top-5 1H scoring (60.6 PPG), while Hornets' 9-game streak faces regression against Detroit's process dominance. Full-game ML at 57.5% implies even more value in 1H for favorites.
Key Points
- +Pistons #1 East (38-13, +7.8 diff), 69.6% road win rate; Hornets 25-28 mediocre, streak vs weaker foes likely regresses (L10 9-1 but .472 overall).
- +Pistons 4th in 1H PPG (60.6); superior efficiency (ORTG 118.1) projects halftime edge over Hornets' D (allow ~59-62 1H recently).
- +Favorites like Pistons (-3) typically lead 1H ~60%+; market discounts streak narrative, undervalues process metrics over hot results.
Key Risks
- !Hornets 9-win streak + home (11-13 but L10 5-5 home) could fuel early fast start.
- !Pistons key injuries (Holland out, Duren probable knee) may slow frontcourt pace early.
- !No recent H2H 1H data; Hornets' Ball/Miller hot hands exploit mismatches.
Catalysts
- →Cunningham (25.1 PPG, 9.7 APG) dictates tempo early; Pistons defense (109.7 OPP PPG, 2nd DRTG) smothers Hornets' streak.
- →Duren probable/Stewart (rebounding) control glass; Pistons blowout potential in 1H vs regressing CHA.
55.5% vs 62% est = +6.5% edge; better than full ML (57.5%) where blowouts favor 1H; avoid YES on Hornets implosive streak pricing.
Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 10.5
+3% edgeMy estimated true probability for Duncan Robinson scoring OVER 10.5 points is 58%, slightly higher than the market's 54.5% pricing. This edge stems from his recent hot streak with high-volume 3-point shooting (20+ points in two of last three games, averaging ~16 PPG in February) and expected 25-30 minutes in a Pistons road win scenario. However, his streaky nature and role-player status warrant caution.
Key Points
- +Recent game log shows 21, 20, 8 points (2/3 over), with 4.7 3PM/9.7 3PA at 48% in February, projecting ~15 PPG on high volume.
- +Pistons are road favorites (-2.5 to -3.5) vs streaking but inferior Hornets (16-7 away record), likely leading to favorable matchup and minutes for shooter Robinson.
- +Season-long trends show variability but upward regression in efficiency metrics (TS% implied high from 3s) supports over in process-oriented view over small sample narratives.
Key Risks
- !Streaky shooter prone to cold nights (e.g., 8pts last game, historical vs CHA varied 3-22pts).
- !Limited minutes if Pistons blowout or rotation changes (Holland out, Duren probable); bench role usage fluctuates.
- !Hornets' 9-game win streak features improved defense (DRTG contextually better L10), could clamp perimeter.
Catalysts
- →Continues 3PT hot streak (48% Feb), exploiting Hornets' perimeter D during Cunningham focus.
- →Pistons pull away for extra possessions/mins in win; favorable matchup at Spectrum Center historically neutral.
58% true prob vs 54.5% market offers +3.5% edge; better value than similar 50% props like Ausar Thompson pts (less volume) or rebounds overs, consistent with Pistons team props implying win/control.
Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 4.5
-4% edgeTobias Harris has averaged 4.7 rebounds per game this season in a large sample, implying a ~51% true probability of exceeding 4.5 rebounds under Poisson distribution assumptions. The market's 54.5% price slightly overstates this likelihood given his role behind primary rebounders like Duren (10.5 RPG) and in a matchup against a streaking Hornets team with solid frontcourt options. Relative to similar props like Cade Cunningham (5.4 RPG at 52%) and Isaiah Stewart (4.5 at 52%), Harris appears mildly overpriced.
Key Points
- +Season-long 4.7 RPG across 51 games provides robust sample; Poisson prob P(>=5 | λ=4.7) ≈51%, regressing to mean over narratives of hot streaks.
- +Pistons rebounding led by Duren (probable, 10.5 RPG), Cade (5.4), Stewart; Harris secondary role limits upside.
- +Matchup vs Hornets (Diabaté 9.5 line, Bridges/Kalkbrenner) competitive boards; high total (223+) but Pistons elite DRTG favors process control.
Key Risks
- !Duren day-to-day misses/injured, boosting Harris opp reb share.
- !Hornets' 9-win streak correlates w/ pace/possessions increasing total rebounds available.
- !Variance in rebounds; Harris recent games could show small-sample spike.
Catalysts
- →Pistons road dominance (16-7) leads to more makes/misses favoring their boards.
- →Harris elevated minutes if blowout or favorable matchup adjustments.
- →Poor Hornets rebounding defense exposed by Pistons' efficiency.
Market 54.5% > 51% estimate implies NO has edge; low conviction due to close avg/line and similar nearby props (Cade/Stewart ~52%), but absolute process favors slight underpricing of UNDER.
Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 4.5
↑+5% edgeCade Cunningham's season rebound average of approximately 5.4 RPG suggests a true probability of around 57% for exceeding 4.5 rebounds, higher than the market's 52.0% pricing. Recent games show variability (e.g., 2,4,5,8), but underlying process and matchup favor a slight edge to the over. Relative to peers like Tobias Harris (54.5%) and Isaiah Stewart (52%), this appears undervalued.
Key Points
- +Season-long RPG of 5.4 (59 rebounds in 11 tracked games) implies ~57% Poisson probability of >=5 rebounds, exceeding market 52%.
- +Recent performance mixed (50% over in last 4), but regression to mean favors over given role as high-minute guard on elite team.
- +Matchup vs. Hornets (strong recent streak but inferior rebounding core) unlikely to suppress; Duren probable limits competition for boards.
Key Risks
- !Jalen Duren (probable, 10.5 RPG) dominates glass, capping Cade's opportunities.
- !Potential blowout win (Pistons -3 favored) reduces Cunningham's minutes and rebound chances.
- !Historical vs. Hornets low (avg ~4), small sample but pace-adjusted regression needed.
Catalysts
- →Duren limited by knee (day-to-day), increasing Cade's rebound share.
- →Hornets' 9-game streak features high pace (O/U 223+), boosting total opportunities.
- →Cade's PRA props imply heavy usage (points 25+, ast 9+), correlating with boards.
57% true prob vs 52% market offers ~5% edge; selective vs. overpriced alts like Pistons ML (57.5%) or Harris reb (54.5%), low conviction due to variance in guard rebounds.
Isaiah Stewart: Rebounds O/U 4.5
-4% edgeIsaiah Stewart's true probability of exceeding 4.5 rebounds is estimated at 48%, below the market price of 52.0%, due to his recent low rebounding average (3.0 over last 3 games) and Jalen Duren's probable status limiting his opportunities. The line appears slightly overpriced relative to process metrics and sample, favoring UNDER despite his role as a key frontcourt player.
Key Points
- +Recent game log shows 2, 6, 1 rebounds (avg 3.0, only 33% over), small sample but regressing toward lower process efficiency in rebounding % amid Pistons' strong team rebounding led by Duren (10.5 RPG).
- +Duren probable to play (knee), historically commanding high rebound share (team leader), reducing Stewart's opp reb opportunities in matchup vs Hornets' Diabate/Kalkbrenner frontcourt.
- +Season role as blocks leader (1.7 BPG) emphasizes paint protection over rebounding volume; career 6.8 RPG inflated by prior seasons, current usage suggests ~4.5-5.0 adj RPG projection.
Key Risks
- !Duren unexpectedly limited/out, boosting Stewart's minutes/reb share significantly.
- !Hornets' 9-game streak features poor rebounding defense (allowing avg opp reb), potential outlier game for Stewart.
- !Blowout win for Pistons (favorites -2.5 to -3.5) reduces late-game rebound chances if garbage time.
Catalysts
- →Extended minutes if foul trouble for Duren or Thompson.
- →Hornets' fast pace/high total (223.5 O/U) leads to more missed shots/reb opportunities.
- →Matchup vs smaller/less physical Hornets bigs (Diabate 9.5 line, Kalkbrenner rookie) favors Stewart's physicality.
Market at 52% overprices OVER relative to recent process (low reb%), Duren health, and comparable props (e.g., Harris/Cunningham ~52-54% at same line); selective vs inflated total market probs, implies value in UNDER vs peers.
Research
Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets odds spread total
Pistons record vs teams on winning streak 2026
Pistons away games record 2025-26
Pistons vs Hornets head to head last 10 games
Spectrum Center Pistons performance history
Pistons first half moneyline stats 2025-26
Hornets first half points allowed average
Pistons 1H scoring vs Hornets historical
Tobias Harris rebound props vs Hornets
Cunningham rebound over under trends