Fed decision in March?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The Fed Watcher
Central bank expert tracking monetary policy
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
+5% edgeI estimate a 90% true probability of no change in Fed rates after the March 2026 meeting, modestly higher than the market price of 85.5%, indicating the option is slightly underpriced. Recent FOMC actions, economic data, and market-implied probabilities support a high likelihood of holding steady, with cuts more likely later in the year.
Key Points
- +January 2026 FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% despite two dissents for a cut (Miran, Waller), signaling majority comfort with pause amid sticky inflation ~2.7% and unemployment at 4.4%.
- +CME FedWatch and similar tools price ~90% no-change probability for March, aligning with economist consensus for hold before potential later-2026 easing per Dec 2025 dot plot.
- +Upcoming data (Jan/Feb CPI, NFP) unlikely to shift dual mandate dramatically in 5 weeks given policy lags and transmission.
Key Risks
- !Unexpectedly soft labor market data (e.g., unemployment >4.5%, weak NFP) prompting preemptive cut.
- !Inflation undershooting sharply (core CPI/PCE <2.5%) amid energy declines, reviving cut advocates.
- !Geopolitical shocks or financial stress accelerating transmission of prior cuts.
Catalysts
- →Hotter-than-expected CPI/NFP data reinforcing hawkish pause.
- →Powell or key FOMC speakers (e.g., Daly, Goolsbee) emphasizing data-dependent hold in Feb speeches.
- →Beige Book or regional Fed reports showing persistent inflation pressures.
At 85.5%, no-change is underpriced vs my 90% estimate and CME ~90%; 12.5% 25bps cut overpriced given recent hold and stable data, offering relative value in mutually exclusive setup.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
+3% edgeI estimate the true probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the March 2026 FOMC meeting at 15%, slightly above the market price of 12.5%, suggesting mild underpricing. The Fed held rates steady in January despite some dissents for cuts, with inflation around 2.7% and unemployment at 4.4%, but potential softening in incoming data could support a cut. Market pricing and economist forecasts align closely with no change as baseline (~85%), but labor trends provide upside risk for easing.
Key Points
- +Fed paused in Jan 2026 after three 2025 cuts, with only two hawkish dissents for cut (Miran, Waller), signaling caution but openness to easing if data softens.
- +Inflation stable (CPI 2.7%, core 2.6% Dec 2025; PCE ~2.8%), above 2% target, supports hold; unemployment 4.4% low but edging up, balancing dual mandate.
- +CME FedWatch ~10-15% cut odds matches market; dot plot likely median 1 cut in 2026, not necessarily March; relative to no-change 85.5%, small edge for cut undervalued.
Key Risks
- !Upcoming Jan/Feb data (CPI ~Feb11, jobs ~Mar6) stronger than expected reinforces pause.
- !Political transition (Powell term ends May) leads to hawkish shift or delays cuts.
- !Resilient growth/inflation reacceleration reduces cut justification.
Catalysts
- →Weaker-than-expected Feb jobs report or Jan CPI below 2.5% YoY accelerates cut odds.
- →Hawkish FOMC members pivot dovish post-Jan minutes (release ~Feb18).
- →Beige Book Mar4 shows district softening.
At 12.5%, 25bps cut slightly underpriced vs my 15% est; implies no-change (85.5%) mildly overpriced in mutually exclusive set; small edge given data dependency ~5wks out.
Research
current federal funds rate
FOMC meeting schedule 2026
latest FOMC statement
recent US CPI inflation
recent US unemployment rate
Fed Chair recent comments
current federal funds target range February 2026
FOMC March 17-18 2026 meeting preview
CME FedWatch March 2026 probabilities
Fed dot plot December 2025 projections
Jerome Powell recent speech interest rates 2026
US CPI January 2026 data
US unemployment rate January 2026
latest FOMC statement February 2026
FOMC minutes January 2026 release
reasons Fed no rate change March 2026
Fed hold rates steady expectations March 2026
economists predict no Fed change March 2026
inflation trends support Fed pause 2026
Fed 25 bps cut March 2026 odds
market pricing 25 basis point Fed cut March 2026
25 bps rate cut FOMC March 2026 forecast
unemployment data justify Fed 25 bps cut 2026
Wall Street expects quarter point Fed cut March 2026
PCE inflation December 2025 Fed preferred gauge
GDP Q4 2025 growth rate
core inflation January 2026 update
Fed speakers rate outlook March 2026
Reuters economist poll FOMC March decision