Elon Musk # tweets February 12 - February 14, 2026?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 12 12:00 PM ET to February 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
The Analyst
Tech industry analyst tracking companies and products
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
+4% edgeMy estimated true probability for Elon Musk posting 90-114 tweets in the 48-hour period is 32%, slightly higher than the market price of 28.5%. This bin captures the most likely range based on recent similar periods averaging around 100-130 posts, adjusted for ongoing political engagement and potential protest responses. Relative to alternatives, it appears mildly underpriced while higher bins like 115-139 at 19.5% may also have value but less edge here.
Key Points
- +Recent Jan 24-26 period (similar 48h Thu-Sat) resolved to 115-139 (~127 posts), but market shifted prob mass to 90-114 suggesting possible slight decline; my estimate centers around 100-110 based on ~50-60 counted posts/day average from weekly data (~350-550/week).
- +High political/DOGE activity sustains volume (e.g., daily breakdowns show 50-100+ on topics like ICE, wokeness); reposts/quotes dominate countable posts.
- +No major schedule conflicts; Tesla Takedown protests on Feb13-14 likely sustain or boost engagement without major events pulling focus elsewhere.
Key Risks
- !Unexpected travel or SpaceX/Tesla event diverts attention, dropping to 65-89 range.
- !Shift in posting style more replies (non-counting) or reduced repost activity amid fatigue.
- !Tracker discrepancies or deletions not captured, undercounting total.
Catalysts
- →Escalating #TeslaTakedown protests on Fri13/Sat14 prompt response threads/reposts.
- →Follow-up buzz on recent SpaceX 'Moon city' announcement spills into period.
- →Political news (DOGE, Trump admin) spikes repost volume as seen in recent highs.
28.5% underprices my 32% estimate with positive edge in highest-prob bin; alternatives like 115-139 (19.5%) undervalued but less conviction vs this central range; mutually exclusive so selective yes on value.
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
-3% edgeEstimated true probability is 20% compared to the market price of 23.0%, indicating slight overpricing. Historical 48-hour tweet counts average around 55-60 per day (110-120 total), placing 65-89 on the lower tail, though variability exists. Given recent resolutions like 115-139 for similar periods and no strong downward catalysts, this bin is less likely than market-implied.
Key Points
- +Recent 48h markets (e.g., Jan 24-26 resolved 115-139, ~58/day) and daily averages from analyses (~50-100/day, often 50-70 post-2025) suggest mean ~110-120 for 48h, making 65-89 (33-44/day) lower tail ~20% prob.
- +Market peaks at 90-114 (28.5%), consistent with data; 65-89 relatively high at 23% given distribution.
- +No major incentives for low volume; politics/DOGE ongoing, protests may spike responses.
Key Risks
- !Unexpected quiet period due to travel or SpaceX focus reducing posts below 65.
- !Tracker discrepancies or deleted posts not captured, undercounting.
Catalysts
- →Tesla Takedown protests Feb 13-14 prompting defensive tweeting bursts.
- →Follow-up on recent SpaceX 'moon city' announcement driving company-related posts.
20% est < 23% price implies sell YES (buy NO); higher bins like 90-114/115-139 undervalued relatively, recent history favors ~110+ total.
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
+5% edgeMy estimated true probability for Elon Musk posting 115-139 tweets in the 48-hour period is 24%, higher than the market's 19.5% due to a recent identical period (Jan 24-26) resolving in this exact range and potential catalysts like Tesla Takedown protests. This suggests mild underpricing relative to the favored 90-114 bracket (28.5%), though variability in his posting keeps it competitive with lower brackets.
Key Points
- +Recent precedent: Jan 24-26, 2026 market resolved YES for 115-139, indicating his typical volume in similar Thu-Sat noon-to-noon windows amid high political activity.
- +Ongoing high engagement: Averages ~50-70 posts/day from resolutions (e.g., weekly ~350-550), boosted by DOGE role and reposts/quotes counting heavily.
- +Catalysts present: Tesla Takedown protests on Feb 13-14 likely to provoke responses, unlike quieter weekends.
Key Risks
- !Posting variability: Recent 7-day markets show drops to ~50/day averages, could pull below 115 if weekend lull.
- !No confirmed schedule: Potential unannounced travel or SpaceX focus (e.g., moon city follow-up) might reduce activity.
- !Tracker discrepancies: Edge cases like deletions or main-feed replies could under/overcount vs. actual.
Catalysts
- →Protest responses: #TeslaTakedown events Fri/Sat in LA/elsewhere often elicit Musk reposts/rants.
- →News spikes: Recent SpaceX moon shift or DOGE developments could drive 20-30 extra posts.
- →Election/politics echo: Any Trump admin news sustains high-frequency reposting.
19.5% underprices vs. my 24% estimate and recent exact precedent; relative to overpriced 90-114 (28.5%) assuming protest boost pushes above 115, but not large conviction given weekly downtrend risks.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
-4% edgeI estimate the true probability of Elon Musk posting 40-64 tweets in the 48-hour period at 10%, lower than the market price of 14.0%. Historical data from recent prediction markets and analyses show his average daily post count consistently exceeds 40-50 tweets, making the lower bracket unlikely without a specific catalyst for reduced activity. The market appears to slightly overprice this low-volume outcome given his sustained high-frequency posting patterns in early 2026 amid political and company engagements.
Key Points
- +Recent 3-day markets (e.g., Jan 24-26: 115-139 tweets) imply ~40+ tweets/day, projecting 80-100+ for 48 hours, far above 64.
- +Analyses report averages of 68-154 posts/day in 2025-2026, with spikes during politics/DOGE; no evidence of sustained lows like 20-32/day needed here.
- +No scheduled events or travel indicate reduced tweeting; protests (Feb 13-14) likely increase responses, pushing volume higher.
Key Risks
- !Unexpected travel or health issue reducing availability.
- !Tracker discrepancies or rule changes excluding reposts/quotes.
- !Sudden shift to replies-only posting, evading main feed counts.
Catalysts
- →TeslaTakedown protests on Feb 13-14 prompting defensive/reactive posts.
- →SpaceX moon city announcements generating promotional tweeting.
- →Ongoing DOGE/political developments sustaining high engagement.
Market at 14% overprices vs my 10% estimate; higher brackets (65-114 at 51.5% combined) better reflect historical norms, but total probs >100% suggests mild inefficiency—small NO on this underperformer.
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
+3% edgeI estimate the true probability at 12%, slightly higher than the market's 9.0%, due to Elon's history of high-volume posting during politically charged periods and potential responses to Tesla Takedown protests on Feb 13-14. Recent 48-hour resolutions like 115-139 tweets suggest capability for 140+, and variance from bursts supports a modestly fatter tail. The market-implied mean of ~116 tweets undervalues the 140-164 bin relative to catalysts.
Key Points
- +Market-implied expected tweets ~116 for 48 hours (~58/day), consistent with recent resolutions (e.g., Jan 24-26: 115-139), but reports of 68-100+ daily countable posts indicate upside potential.
- +High variance from topic bursts (e.g., 24 posts on Somali fraud one day) makes 140-164 (~70-82/day) plausible at >9%.
- +Ongoing SpaceX moon city news and Tesla protests Feb 13-14 likely sustain/increase activity over average.
Key Risks
- !Elon reduces posting if traveling or focused on DOGE/Tesla/SpaceX meetings, as seen in April 2025 drop to 40/day.
- !XTracker misses edge-case posts (deletes, community reposts), though rules favor inclusion if captured.
- !Lower weekend tweeting if no major hooks, despite protests.
Catalysts
- →Escalation of #TeslaTakedown protests prompting reply/quote/repost barrages.
- →Fresh SpaceX announcements or xAI/Grok updates driving high-volume sharing.
- →Political/DOGE developments aligning with Feb 12-14 sparking engagement spikes.
12% estimate > 9.0% price implies buy YES; small conviction given high market efficiency/volumes and mutually exclusive bins where 115-139 (19.5%) may absorb some probability mass, but this bin offers relative value on tail/upside.
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
+3% edgeI estimate the true probability at 8%, higher than the market's 5.5%, as Elon's recent posting rates (50-80 tweets/day) make 82-95/day averages achievable during active periods, especially with Tesla protests likely spurring responses. The market appears to overweight lower bins based on recent averages around 50/day but underestimates tail risk from spikes seen in past 48h periods like Jan 24-26 (115-139 tweets).
Key Points
- +Historical 48h periods like Jan 24-26 reached 115-139 tweets (~58-70/day), and single-day counts often exceed 100, supporting potential for 165-189 total.
- +Ongoing political/DOGE activity and Tesla Takedown protests on Feb 13-14 could drive repost/quote spikes, as seen in high-volume days on politics/SpaceX.
- +Market implied EV ~100-110 tweets overprices moderate bins (90-114 at 28.5%) relative to fatter tail from variable daily rates.
Key Risks
- !Elon may reduce weekend posting if traveling or focusing on DOGE/SpaceX meetings, as April 2025 saw drop to 40/day.
- !No major confirmed events Feb 12-14; quieter than election/heavy news weeks.
- !Tracker misses some community reposts or deletions post-5min, potentially undercounting.
Catalysts
- →Escalation of #TeslaTakedown protests prompting defensive/political tweets/reposts.
- →Follow-up posts on recent SpaceX 'moon city' announcement gaining traction.
- →Unexpected xAI/Grok or Trump-related news triggering high-volume engagement.
At 5.5%, 165-189 offers value vs. overpriced 90-114 (28.5%) given historical highs and protest catalysts; small edge but consistent with mutually exclusive bins where high tail undervalued.
Research
Elon Musk X posting frequency
xtracker.polymarket.com Elon Musk
Elon Musk events February 2026
Elon Musk news February 9 2026
Elon Musk average tweets per day February 2026
Elon Musk tweet count February 1-9 2026
xtracker.polymarket.com Elon Musk historical post counter
Elon Musk daily X posts recent weeks 2026
Elon Musk tweet frequency Thursdays Fridays Saturdays
Elon Musk highest 48-hour tweet totals 2026
Elon Musk lowest 48-hour tweet totals 2026
Elon Musk tweets during SpaceX announcements 2026
Tesla Takedown protests Elon Musk responses February 2026
Elon Musk schedule events February 12-14 2026
SpaceX moon city plans Elon Musk X posts
Elon Musk reposts per day average 2026
Elon Musk weekend tweeting patterns 2026
xtracker.polymarket.com Elon Musk data export February
Elon Musk tweet volume Tesla news February 2026
Kaggle Elon Musk tweet dataset 2026 statistics
Elon Musk post counter accuracy xtracker
Elon Musk tweeting rate change early 2026