St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Chicago State Cougars
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St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Chicago State Cougars

This event is for the CBB game between St. Francis (PA) Red Flash and Chicago State Cougars on February 9 at 4:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

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$10,601
24h Vol
$8,186
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The Stathead

The Stathead

Advanced analytics and sabermetrics expert

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St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Chicago State Cougars: O/U 145.5

-3% edge
Market
50%
Estimate
47%
Confidence
75%

Projected game total is approximately 146 points based on averaging offensive and defensive efficiencies (SFPA: 73.7 projected; CHS: 72.7 projected), aligning closely with the 145.5 line. However, both teams' bottom-tier offenses (SFPA 68.8 PPG #295, CHS 60.9 PPG #361) and recent low-scoring trends, including a 141-point H2H this season, suggest a slight under bias. Estimated true probability of OVER 145.5 is 47%, mildly underpriced at market's 50.0%.

Key Points
  • +Weak offensive efficiencies dominate, with CHS having the worst offense in D1 at 60.9 PPG, capping scoring potential despite SFPA's porous defense (84.4 PPG allowed #351).
  • +Recent H2H total of 141 (under 143.5) this season at SFPA; prior games averaged higher but small sample and current form favors lower totals.
  • +Both teams play at slower paces (low assists/rebounds), regressing from high-deficit games where opponents score freely.
Key Risks
  • !SFPA's recent road losses were high-scoring (e.g., 187, 170 totals), potentially carrying over if defenses falter.
  • !Chicago State home games have seen overs (e.g., 152, 145), and no major injuries could lead to extended possessions.
Catalysts
  • →Tightened defenses in NEC matchup with both teams desperate for conference wins, leading to lower possessions.
  • →Regression to mean for SFPA's inflated defensive PPG from poor non-con opponents.
small conviction

At 50.0% market price, 47% true prob offers a small edge on NO; consistent with relative value as spread implies ~146.5 total (CHS -2.5 ~74-71.5), but inefficiencies favor under without strong mispricing in alternatives.

Spread: Chicago State Cougars (-2.5)

-4% edge
Market
48%
Estimate
44%
Confidence
72%

Estimated true probability of Chicago State covering -2.5 is 44%, below the market price of 48.0%, indicating slight overpricing. St. Francis (PA) has a superior overall (6-17 vs. 4-20) and conference record (4-6 vs. 2-9 NEC), plus a recent 21-point home win over Chicago State (81-60). Despite Chicago State's home court and St. Francis's road fatigue, underlying metrics favor St. Francis covering.

Key Points
  • +St. Francis superior record and recent H2H dominance (81-60 win by 21, covering -3.5), suggesting process edge over narratives of home court.
  • +Both teams inefficient (SFPA TS% implied poor via 68.8 PPG off/#295 rank; CHS 60.9 PPG/#361), but SFPA better margin (-15.7 vs -17.6), regression favors slight SFPA edge after poor non-conf starts.
  • +Market inefficiency (total prob 141.5%) and low sample conf games (SFPA 4-6, CHS 2-9) point to overreaction to CHS home and SFPA L3 streak vs. predictive rank #358 SFPA.
Key Risks
  • !SFPA road fatigue from 4 road games in 8 days (Mercyhurst Feb5, LeMoyne, CHS Feb9), potential situational EPA drop.
  • !CHS home cooking (3-7? home record) and prior H2H home win (81-69 by 12 in '25), small sample variance high for bottom-tier teams.
Catalysts
  • →Skylar Wicks (17.3 PPG, recent 20-pt game) exploits CHS poor def (78.5 allowed); SFPA rebounding edge (30.4 vs CHS opp 36.9, but adjust home).
  • →Low pace NEC (implied O/U trends u143.5 recent H2H), CHS off regression from 60.9 PPG baseline.
small conviction

Market at 48% overprices CHS -2.5 given SFPA's better metrics and H2H; relative to O/U 50% and SFPA ML? 43.5%, edge on NO here with inefficient total probs; small conviction due to high variance in weak teams.

St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Chicago State Cougars

+3% edge
Market
44%
Estimate
46%
Confidence
72%

My model estimates a 46% true probability for St. Francis (PA) Red Flash to win, slightly higher than the market's 43.5%, due to superior offensive output and recent head-to-head win. While Chicago State has home advantage, their anemic offense (60.9 PPG, #361 nationally) limits upside, making St. Francis undervalued.

Key Points
  • +St. Francis superior scoring (68.8 PPG #295 vs. Chicago State 60.9 #361) and margin (-15.7 vs. -17.6) indicate better process despite poor records.
  • +Recent H2H: St. Francis won 81-60 at home in Jan '26; prior CHST home win was closer (81-69).
  • +Predictive metrics favor St. Francis (#358 rank); Chicago State's offense regresses poorly in low-possession NEC games.
Key Risks
  • !Road game at Chicago State (home court ~3 pts value; prior win there).
  • !Both on losing streaks (SFPA L3, CHST extended); high variance in bottom-tier matchup.
  • !Rescheduled game may cause SFPA fatigue from road trip density.
Catalysts
  • →Skylar Wicks (17.3 PPG) exploits CHST defense (#316).
  • →CHST offensive woes continue (low eFG%, poor TS%); under 145.5 O/U aids grind-it-out win.
  • →Matchup adjustment: SFPA better vs. poor defenses per situational stats.
small conviction

43.5% underprices SFPA's true 46% win prob; market inefficiency (total 141.5%) and stats edge vs. CHST spread (48%) make YES selective value over alternatives.

Research

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Sources
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St. Francis PA Red Flash record 2026

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Loretto PA weather February 9 2026 travel conditions

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St. Francis PA Red Flash home court advantage stats

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