2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals
This market will resolve according to the country that wins the most gold medals at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026. In the case of ties, the ordered list for most gold medals won will use most overall medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most gold medals won, and Norway wins more overall medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group, will be ranked higher. This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are partially completed and then cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the gold medals awarded in the completed events. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are entirely cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be official information from the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).
The Stathead
Advanced analytics and sabermetrics expert
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
↑+10% edgeNorway currently leads with 3 golds to the US's 2 and others at 1 or fewer after the first few days of competition. Given Norway's historical dominance (16 golds in 2022), overwhelming success in 2025 World Championships (43 medals), and strength in remaining events like cross-country skiing (12 events) and biathlon (11 events) where they typically sweep, the true probability is estimated at 88%, higher than the market's 78.5%. The market slightly underprices Norway while overpricing the US at 17%.
Key Points
- +Norway holds an early lead with 3 golds (ski jumping, cross-country skiathlon, speed skating) vs US 2 (figure skating team and likely another), positioning them ahead in process metrics.
- +Norway dominated 2025 World Championships with 43 medals across Olympic events, far ahead of competitors, indicating superior form and depth.
- +Remaining schedule heavily favors Norway: expect 5-8 golds in cross-country, 3-5 in biathlon/Nordic combined; US strengths (freestyle, snowboarding) yield fewer golds (~4-6 total additional).
Key Risks
- !Unexpected injuries to Norway's stars like Johannes Høsflot Klæbo or biathlon team, regressing their small-sample early dominance.
- !Home advantage boosts Italy/Germany in alpine/biathlon, or weather favors US strongholds like freestyle/snowboard big air.
- !Tie scenario: if golds tie, Norway's total medals lead (currently 6 vs US 2) but could shift with US volume medals.
Catalysts
- →Norway sweeps upcoming cross-country sprints/relays (Feb 10+), extending lead to 6-8 golds.
- →Dominant biathlon results (starting soon), where Norway has top medal hauls historically.
- →US falters in figure skating individuals or hockey, capping their upside.
At 78.5¢, Norway offers value (true 88%) vs overpriced US (17% vs true ~10%); early process metrics and matchup-adjusted projections (Norway's xGolds equivalent ~16.5) support buying YES with medium conviction given games' early stage and sample size concerns.
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
↓-5% edgeEstimated true probability for US winning most golds is 12%, below market 17.0%. Norway leads 3-2 early and dominates remaining high-volume gold events like cross-country (6+ expected) and biathlon. US early figure skating success unlikely to offset Norway's historical and projected dominance (16 golds in 2022 vs US 8).
Key Points
- +Norway leads 3-2 in golds after Day 3; excels in cross-country, biathlon, Nordic combined/Norwegian specialties with many events left (~20+ golds possible).
- +US golds from figure team (Ilia Malinin) & possibly hockey prelims; strengths in snowboarding/freestyle/speedskate offer 5-8 more but fewer than Norway's pipeline.
- +Historical: Norway 16g/2022, 14g/2018; small sample early favors regression to Norway mean dominance per world cup results.
Key Risks
- !US outperforms in speed skating relays & hockey gold; figure skating sweeps.
- !Norway injuries/upsets in ski events; weather favors US disciplines.
Catalysts
- →US sweeps snowboarding big air/parallel & women's hockey gold.
- →Norway underperforms in biathlon/cross-country relays due to fatigue.
17% overprices US vs Norway 78.5%; early US 2g close but Norway's event-adjusted efficiency (e.g., xG-like dominance in skis) implies ~82% Norway, lowering US to 12%. Sell yes for edge.
Research
2026 Winter Olympics medal standings
Top countries gold medals 2026 Olympics
Winter Olympics 2026 events progress
Norway current gold medals 2026 Winter Olympics
Norway medal predictions Milano Cortina 2026
Norway strongest events 2026 Winter Olympics
Norway historical gold medals Winter Olympics
United States gold medals so far 2026 Olympics
US predictions most golds 2026 Winter Olympics
USA key athletes 2026 Milano Cortina
US medal outlook Winter Olympics 2026
2026 Winter Olympics official medal table Olympics.com
Remaining events 2026 Winter Olympics golds
2026 Milano Cortina cross-country skiing results
Alpine skiing medals 2026 Olympics latest
Biathlon standings Milano Cortina 2026
Snowboard big air results 2026 Winter Olympics
US women's hockey score 2026 Olympics
Eileen Gu performance 2026 Milano Cortina
Norway top athletes golds 2026 Olympics
Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics medal table
Pyeongchang 2018 top gold medal countries